On Corporate Profit Motives in the Social Networking Space

In its seemingly desperate search for those 'elusive' revenue growth opportunities, presumably to justify its 70 billion (albeit, fast eroding) market value, Facebook is now looking into "Allowing Children younger than 13 ways to access Facebook, with parental supervision".  Apparently Zuckerberg & Co. want to make money off of pre-teens and their desire to be 'hip', and 'connected', and their ability to make parents melt to layout cash - so kids can play games, and partake in other Facebook goodies.  Zuckerberg got married recently, and presumably does not have any minor biological children of his own.

I was doing some targeted FB people searches yesterday, and happened to come across a bunch of profiles that were under "full lockdown" - you cannot see anything other than a name, and a profile picture (at times, no picture).  I was looking to confirm if a certain individual, a paroled inmate, convicted for child abuse, and aggravated battery against a child, had a FB page.  Turns out he might.  But everything on his FB page is locked down.  Probably for a good reason.  I could only get close to confirmation.

I have no doubt there are thousands, if not millions, of predators and sex offenders on FB.  There is also an active movement, on behalf of currently incarcerated felons, to allow prison inmates access to FB.  I will reserve opinion on this one, for now.

The internet is, intrinsically, not a safe place because people and personas can easily be manipulated from behind the confines, and privacy, of an offender's apartment or house.  The dangers, particularly for minor children, are real and imminent.

I am not sure what to make of Facebook Inc.'s latest revenue model gyrations.  Sometime back, I recall, an adult woman went out on a first date, with some one she met on match.com.  To make a long story short, the man in that case, as I recall, had a rap sheet of violence and assaults a mile long.  The woman was lucky to get out of the situation, alive, though roughed up.  She sued match.com, and accepted a settlement whereby match.com agreed to background check every match.com user, male or female.  I do not know if match.com is actually doing so, or not.

Facebook may consider background checks - but invasion of privacy, and the sheer cost of vetting 900 million plus users will likely result in a "robo-signing" type operation, if at all, not unlike what we have seen in US foreclosure proceedings - Banking Corporations, much larger than Facebook, failed to apply a reasonable level of care and diligence in enforcing foreclosure proceedings, sometimes even against borrowers who were current on their loan!

I am vehemently against any such moves by FB.  A future 'slap-on-the-wrist', or civil fines of hundreds of millions (which FB can easily afford to pay), does nothing for the individuals, and their families, if some were to become just yet another statistical data point.

Mark Zuckerberg and company have to do that which is right - for society.  After all, Facebook is a Social Network.

The Facebook IPO – Act One

Be-fitting an internet giant (?), that is, at its core, a One Act Pony.

I must confess, I get a certain chilling-rush from adding that question mark next to "internet giant".  Each time I have seen any business entity being singled out at as a giant (in any field), I start yet another one of my countdown clocks, waiting for the inevitable obituaries, and the post mortems. Yahoo is a prime example.  Planet Earth is littered with the digital graveyards of many young, and ambitious, technology start-ups, and of many old-world corporations that spurned their buttoned down old-worlds in favor of more glamorous digital pursuits (likely to have been recommended by some twenty-something-newly-minted-Ivy-League-MBA-Willy, working for the likes of McKinsey, Bain, or Booz Allan Hamilton, etc.).  Billions have been thrown down such digital drains, and thousands of jobs destroyed, all in pursuit of gravity-defying-stock-valuations that also happen to stuff CEO pockets with absurd amounts of Greenbacks.  Outsized CEO compensation, often disregarding final outcomes, and premature vesting distorts all motivations.  Vulture Attorney (yes, they exist) guard the grounds of dying or dead corporations, and serve as grave keepers, seeking to feed off of any remaining signs of financial upside. Sorrowful individual investors vicariously place flowers at the grave markers, over beers and feelings of despair, or perhaps financial ruin.

To be fair, some businesses do make it to land of giants - Google stands out in recent history.

Contemporary media experts, and talking head media Pundits, are always quick to pass judgment and pin labels,   of grandeur, or of being fatally flawed – on everything that is worth yet another Nielsen ratings point.  Such is life - nonchalant use of mighty metaphors to create headline scintillation is nothing new, but it seems to have run absurdly amok, particularly given the fierce inter-and- intra-media battles for ratings, and the advertising spend that follows from ratings (print media is pressing for survival, broadcast media is screaming at amped up decibels, from every antenna top, and digital media is desperately trying to firmly plants its network circuitry – all to catch our collective dysfunctional attention spans).

Most recently, Facebook was THE golden prodigy, and a media darling (current status of love affair is more ‘Like’ between dislike and despair).  With a global thundering herd of 900 million plus users (Zuck’s Ducks, sitting or otherwise), sending billions of ‘Like’(s), uploading a billion pictures each day, and 400 million MUA (monthly Unique Active accounts - read Facebook addicts).  Imagine this - if everyone now on Facebook became friends with all other FB users, there would be 405,450,000,000 friendships in the FB universe.  That is 405.45 billion, or roughly 62 times the human population.  Stretch that a bit, and you get to some rather amazing conclusions – friends usually do not fight, or kill each other (am I being too naïve?).  So FB creates a platform for global peace and quiet. No more wars, suffering, genocide, etc.  Mark Zuckerberg may even get one of those Nobel Peace Prize nomination nods!

Yes, Facebook has a stunning global retail reach.  At least in theory it does.  And, it will always be free for users – per the statement on facebook.com.  The average user (MUA, or not) pays nothing for having a personal social broadcast platform (the grand design is rooted in psychological theories of human condition, to massage our individual and collective egos, feed our narcissistic needs, and to combat human feelings of isolation and loneliness).  FB has also built out a very impressive technology stack, spread around the World that makes the lives of anxious users, and their friends, a bit more manageable.  Instantaneous ‘Status Updates”, and real-time feedback – ‘Likes’ or comments for every post. 

Corporate advertisers of all inclinations were drooling at the prospect of serving up custom advertising, based on Big Data’s insights from users’ profiles, Likes and posts, and just about everything a user does on FB.  With the right mix of media-hype, and some shrewd calculated feature releases, Mark Zuckerberg and Co. managed to fool Ad buyers into believing that “If You Put Your Product on FB Pages, You Will Sell More”.  But in the Attention Deficit Disordered Narcissistic world of the Average FB user (and, on average, we are all average), the FB community’s quest, perhaps even the need, for ‘Likes’ from fellow FB community members is far greater than the desire to visit a clickable link from some annoying advertiser.  GM pulled the plug on its $10 million annual advertising experiment from FB, saying FB does not help sell more cars, or help in upselling GM cars.  FB even tried to offer low-cost ‘sponsored’ status updates to users – for only $2 a pop, users can have a custom framed and attention grabbing bling surround your status updates.  Was this an ultimate play to our psyche, or a desperate reach for revenues? I believe the latter.

Of Crooks, Cooks and the Retarded

About a year ago, FB retained the band of “Cooks, Crooks and the Retarded” - in strict compliance with Americans with Disabilities Act - to manage its IPO.  Rumor is that Zuckerberg was initially against the IPO, but gave in, despite his staggering 59% voting control of FB (with only a 29% equity stake – how that can happen is yet another story to be told some other time), to the ‘exit strategy’ wishes of his institutional Early stage Venture Investors (read, Vulture Investors, Hedge Funds, Accel Partners, Goldman Sachs, etc.).

The CCR band (Crooks, Cooks and Retards), not to be confused with the band Credence Clearwater Revival, between them had a stunning track record for developing Cooking Recipes, and for Digging their own graves, particularly in recent times.  Getting high on your own supply (don’t, said Tony Montana) became norm, and global markets were brought to their knees, the world on the brink of disaster, paying for the misdeeds of the CCR by way of global government sponsored bailouts.  ‘Free’ Market ‘Capitalism’ at its best.  I get it.

I have no evidence for ANY unlawful behavior (really, I do not!) but somehow adding a C (Crooks) to CR makes for a much attractive moniker.  You see, even your truly is not immune from fondness for bling, and cheap thrills!

After a year of ‘Analysis’ and ‘Valuation’ models, probably running on late night coffee runs and stale pizza (NOT!), Wall Street was ready for the IPO roadshow – the one-on-one, and group meetings, with potential IPO investors. Zuckerberg is said to have attended ONE such meeting, petulant behavior, presumably to show his disdain for going public.  No one can touch Zucky, for he owns over 50% of voting rights! So, Zucky can do whatever the hell Zucky wants to.  But I digress.  After all the Analysis, Valuation Models, and fiduciary responsibility (across both sides of the fence) that was, CCR’s burden, Facebook IPO road show was pitching roughly 335 million shares at between 28 and 34 USD. IPOs are typically not directly marketed to retail investors.  A retail investor can place a buy at the IPO, but is at the sheer mercy of the Wall Street “Allocation” process.  No one really knows how allocation works.  Well, we actually do, but the dirt is too sordid to even discuss.  Getting in on a “Hot” IPO is a privilege because IPOs are usually based on conservative valuation and pricing assumptions.  As investors, who did not receive allocations to their liking, jump in with buy orders, the stock usually pops.  First day trading gains of 25-100% are not uncommon.  A direct implication of such a pop in stock price – the company issuing stock left a lot of money on the table, courtesy of its CCR.  CCRs also, usually, have an overallotment option (for some reason, it is also called the Green Shoe option), that gives CCR the option (right, but not the obligation) to purchase up to certain % of shares issued in the IPO, at the IPO price, and sell the same at market prices.  Think about it – I can but at IPO price, and sell at the IPO plus Pop price, without having to pay anything.  It is Pure Profit, but only if the stock price shoots UP.  The rhetorical argument in favor of overallotment is “market stabilization”, but it is mostly that – rhetorical.

When you invest in any company, you are also investing in management’s character.  If you think otherwise, I would recommend you re-examine your investment strategies, for misdeeds (in addition to mismanagement) of management have repeatedly wiped out stock holders.  Ask Enron, WorldCom, Tyco, etc., if you still believe I am grinding some agenda.  We know, from the short history of Facebook, of Zuckerberg’s other legacy – his legal troubles - over amounts as small as a few hundred dollars, and up to a few billion if one were to believe in Paul Ceglia’s claims(Paul Ceglia v. Mark Zuckerberg).  In addition, every early stage investor (read, Vulture Capitalist) wants to wring the most out their ‘patience’ and ‘foresight’.  A perfect storm was brewing in the Facebook teacup!

Informed Investors (read, Hedge Funds, preferred institutions) had to know, that Zuckerberg and his Vulture investors were NOT about to leave ANYTHING behind on the table.  Not a single dime.  Not just in pricing, but in selling as much of their holding as they could.  The result – IPO shares were inexplicably increased to 421 million, a 25% larger pool, and the target price was raised to 38!  In Zuckerberg’s mind, Facebook was likely worth over USD 100 billion and damn if he was not getting ALL his money. 

Amidst all the hoopla and media hype, no one dared to question Facebook’s maneuvers.  Investors’ own greed, for that lucrative ‘pop’ in share price, blind-sighted almost all.  Last, but by no means in the least, the NASDAQ exchange screwed up the FB opening trades.  A Technical glitch was to blame, as always.  Right! Try incompetence.

Wait.  There was this issue of FB secretly guiding CCR analysts about impending downward revisions to its own earnings estimates.  Of course, those CCR analysts relayed the news to the market as was their fiduciary duty.  Only, they allegedly relayed it to a select subset of investors!  US SEC and Feds are putting on a charade (like they actually care) and threatening “investigations”.  Numerous lawsuits are already in the dockets.  This thing is set to linger for a long time.

Last night FB shares closed at $28.19, down almost $10 from the $38 IPO price.  That is a 26% wipeout for stock holders.  And it has happened in less than 2 weeks of trading.  FB is now worth just $60 billion.

From my perch, FB is not even close to being done with the downward spiral of stock price.   Sympathies if you bought into the ‘early bird special’.  It’s not too late to get out.  As Kenny Rogers said, "you got to know when to fold them".   

Congratulations if you shorted FB.  You get it.

Yours Truly

(For interested readers, a detailed analysis of the True value of FB is coming.  Soon)

On Republican Rock Stars that Matter in the 2012 US Presidential Election 

The song goes "Rumor Has it, Rumor Has it..." It was a recent Top 100 track. With America's fascination for rumor and nuanced innuendo, in politics, it is time to talk about some other rumors:

Rumor is that when they tried to measure John's Stewart's IQ, in 3rd grade, the "Simon-Binet" scale (aka the Stanford-Binet IQ score; note how we Americans always have the last laugh over the French) blew-up.

The rumor is puzzling, since the same scale imploded when George W. Bush was tested, as a college Senior - huh? did W'ya even graduate? That is a whole another topic of conversation, not unlike some other myths that surround W'Ya - his Air Reserve Guard Service (did he actually serve, or not?) during Vietnam, or was W'Ya guilty of DUI or not? or did Papa Bush intervene to save the Prodigal Son's proverbial rear-end? Or, are rumors of all the Global achievements from W'Ya's exhilirating 2 term rent free life at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, where instead of merely redecorating the West Wing, DumYa (sorry, that's a typo, I swear) focussed on redecorating the World (with a blanket permission, and a blank check, granted by our very own US Congress, with the exception of, amongst others, the current occupant of 1600, and a majority Blessing of the Truly Impotent - aka, The UN) true? Yeeeehaw!.

Why aim for anything less than a series of Texas sized accomplishments when one can Shock and Awe, Grin, Holler, and then Grin some more, and, land aboard USS Abraham Lincoln (It's gonna be OK Mr. President, stop turning in the grave. Its all good. The Union is still together. As of today.), in a two seater Lockheed S-3 Viking fighter jet flown by the other guy (Lt. Ryan Phillips), in full fighter pilot regalia. Perhaps W'Ya did serve after all - he remembered how to put the gravity suit on. See, I am a reasonable man, and will always err on the side of granting the benefit of doubt, unless someone, anyone, even the Rovester, can create reasonable doubt - that is how high the bar should be, for such National Security matters, and for the human body that sits in the chair in the Oval Office, with keys to our collective Nucear arsenal (another type, I am sorry). Mission Accomplished. Indeed Mr. Texas Rangers. You succeeded in creating Jaw-Dropping Shock, and Eyebrow Raising Awe with your temerity, and Executive spending of Pentagon funds. You ended "Major Combat Operations" on May 1, 2003. Without capturing Osama Bin Laden, Dead or Alive (Its all good, Bon Jovi). I know, I know - you left detailed instructions, for your successor, on how to get Osama, and 8 years after your selfless risk taking, as Commander in Chief, with the aircraft carrier landing, HE got it done. Finally. I know right? - What took him 3 years into his first term to capture and kill America's Enemy number One and FBI's number one Most Wanted? Well that, DumYa, is the reason the Stanford-Binet scale imploded in the first place. Meanwhile, Tom Cruise is still contemplating those copyright infringement charges. How un-American. How un-Scientific.

Dick, Bless-His-New-Heart, Cheney, meanwhile, argues that even though he hauled his hind end to Canada (Canada? Really?? Fine, let's not talk of the 'Looney', it was simply closest to land-locked Casper, Wyoming, by way of Billings, Helena, and Great Falls. There is no proof though, that a Robert Bruce Cheney crossed the international line via the land border, but merely an informed guess, since Dick's father was, of all things, a not-so-highly-paid soil conservation agent for the US Department of Agriculture - talk about having a Big Government, and an EPA like Agency, even back in 1941), to beat the draft during Vietnam. We accept, without an iota of doubt, your claim, that Vancouver, BC, was not 'Hunting' Central, though there were multiple sightings of Weapons of mass Destruction, in Canada, that you had been covertly tasked by ____ (covert, you see), by an unnamed (covert, again) Federal Agency. In your defense, though, Carl Rove has been pointing out that J. Edgar Hoover was secretly a CIA operative. That's code for Agent. And that J. Edgar was Gay. That is Carl Rove just being Carl Rove.

Finally, Mitt 'the-money-man' Romney. I am not sure where to start - that he served as a missionary for his faith, in France, spreading the Mormon word, while Americans were coming home in body-bags, or with mangled bodies, if at all, during the time our French friends (why is it that France is always the party-spoiler?) was enjoying one of the finest runs of Burgundy seasons in its history. Or, should I begin with his Leveraged Buy-Out deals, as head of Bain Capital, that he is trying so hard to recast, and sell, as a 100,000+ job creation Venture Capitalist tenure. Never mind, that a paltry 2.5 million investment in Staples counts today as having created 42,000 jobs. Feel the Shock, Staples? Feel the Awe emanating from the audacity of the lie? Or, should I merely mention how many Americans were fired, and families destroyed, after Bain took control of each of those LBO target companies, leveraged those Balance Sheets to the Hilt, thereby Bankrupting viable businesses that had previously had a history of profitable operations, and that Bain, and Mitt, made their fortunes (read, hundreds of Millions of Greenbacks) in the process.

I can continue, but Zuckerberg called last night, if I remember the foggy 1AM call right, and asked if I would stop sending him not-so-nice-emails regarding his IPO, and keep my Status Updates to the mundane, like most of his 900 million plus users. But then, I digress.

There is no doubt you have some brains, Mitt. 2 degrees from Harvard, despite being burdened with a former Governor as Dad. You have money, and that is amply clear in how you like your cookies, and from your having examined your full tax-disclosures, as presumptive nominee.

But you Mitt forget one thing - the 'Other' guy can shoot 3 pointers, from downtown, and around your sun soaked celebrity looks. Yes, 'White Men Can't Jump' was a real movie. I also hear he can also drive them straight down the fairways. Nothing like Bubba Watson from Iraq, FL, can, but long enough. And always straight. Well, at least that's his intent. No fades. No Draws. No Flips and No Flops. And without even an Etch a Sketch layout of the golf course. Just straight. I hear that is the only way you like them anyways.

Incidentally though, he also has a degree from Harvard. Sponsored by his single 'parent' grandmother.

What was that Mitt? Birth Certificate? Yes, he has one, an Original from the hospital in Hawaii where he was born. You do know that Hawaii became our 50th Great State before August 4, 1961, right? Or are you simply confused about the dates? Fine, that was on August 21, 1959. Darn, missed by just shy of 2 years!

November 2012 is not about any Republican. It is about the soul of America, and its Heart. And, it is about to be ripped out, leveraged and sold in Bankruptcy courts, if the Republican Men have their way.  In the interest of full-disclosure, I am a registered independent in FL.  That is why I was unable to vote for any one of the clowns on the GOP slate.  Not that I would have.

Yours truly.

PS: Upon looking up VP biden's IQ scores from his college days, we discovered that the scale wasn't around prior to World War I. I am serious.