The Kiss of Isaac

He is now Hurricane Isaac, making landfall in Louisiana. SW Florida spent a couple of nervous wind and rain soaked days, with then TS Isaac lashing over the FL Keys, and drenching Miami, Palm Beach, Naples, Ft. Myers, Saint Petersburg, Tampa, and towns and cities across the FL panhandle.  Awesome power if one thinks about the FL peninsula - 577 miles from 'Land's End' to its Northern state line, and 140 miles across as the crow files, at mid-FL. 19 million folks live across the state.  And, while for folks back in India 19 million (or, 1.9 crore) is perhaps just another day in one of India's large metropolitan cities like Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Chennai, or Kolkata, 19 million in FL represents the 4th largest US state by population (behind CA, TX, and NY). Incidentally, fully a third (33%) of the US population (about 300 million) is concentrated in these four most populous US states. Coincidentally, these 4 states represent only 14% of the US 50 states' combined land area.  So tonight, FL breathes a sigh of relief.

For 4.5 million people of Louisiana though, and for those across the US with some ties to LA, and in particular New Orleans, the next 24 hours is likely to feel like eternity.  Hurricane Katrina hit 7 years ago, to the day, and, Hurricane Isaac made landfall at about 7PM Eastern, few miles South-West of New Orleans.

What happened in NOLA, in August 2005, in the aftermath of Katrina is an American national shame and disgrace.  The George W. Bush administration, paralyzed for 'whatever' reason, did NOTHING to send in Federal Disaster Aid, as large swaths of NOLA were being submerged. NOLA's poor, predominantly African Americans living in low lying areas (the 9th ward) were literally buried in watery graves for humans and animals alike. The Superdome, where the New Orleans Saints football team play home games, was the largest dome in America in 2005, and authorities seized upon Superdome as a 'Mega Hurricane Shelter'.  What transpired inside the dome is nothing short of bloody murder and unconscionable dereliction of our Government's duty to protect and preserve life.

Despite the insanity of bigotry and racism, overt or otherwise (yes, it is everywhere in America), on display during Katrina, New Orleans is a very special place.  While a lot of folks left NOLA for good in Katrina's wake, New Orleanians did return, and they have tried to rebuild their city.  Their beloved Saints are now former SuperBowl champions, having devastated teams across the NFL. Quarterback Drew Brees, the one that couldn't get a decent draft coming out of college, only to be picked up by San Diego and dumped by the Chargers in 2005, came to New Orleans in 2006, and took the Saints (the perpetual losers, derisively called the Ain't(s) across America) to its first NFL title.

Bobby Jindal, the son of immigrant parents from India, is presently Governor of Louisiana.  Jindal is Republican, and even though President Obama declared a Federal Emergency for all of LA, well in advance of Isaac's projected landfall, Jindal has been screaming bloody murder at the 'lack of adequate federal response'.  That is just politics, and it is after all RNC Convention week.  Jindal, at one point was rumored to be in consideration for the VP nomination, you see, so his political ambitions are young and perhaps raging enough for him to continue to live in denial of the reality of his home State's plight.

The spirit of NOLA cannot, and will not break because some bureaucrat, or politician, does not like the demographics of New Orleans. I have no doubt that the Obama administration will do everything the Federal Government can, to protect and preserve life across LA, regardless of color, race, or sexual orientation.

I hope I am right.

Good Night, and Good Luck

On Global Socio-Political and Economic Outlook, And Their Impacts on "Ch-India"

The din of the Chinese and Indian 'Economic Miracle' slowing to a very painful grind is getting louder by the day. I am not one to read a piece in some popular magazine and rush to judgement, and, I do NOT follow CNBC at all - Zip, Zilch, Nil, Zero. Nada time wasted on the "World Markets Entertainment Network". It seems, however, that many smart observers and commentators are talking and paying attention to this slowdown, so I did some digging around of my own.

Europeans (across the EU), it seems can't afford to buy anything. Some folks in Germany and France may be the only exceptions. Perhaps. Being the two largest, and richest of EU economies, both either are, or may be, in a position to 'bail' out the prodigal member nations, and perhaps, to even save the 'Union'. However, French and German rivalries, and troubling politico-historical relationships keep the economic crisis across EU muddling along with a multitude of weekend retreats, conferences, and mundane confidence votes. Even the ECB decided it can 'talk' the world in to believing the incredulous. Notwithstanding Draghi's supposed 'power and influence', his rants are now perhaps more bravado than a genuine reflection of ECB's intent, willingness, and indeed its ability to save the EU. I have a hard time buying his rhetoric. The magnitude of the financial mess is beyond what the ECB, and for that matter, what even a willing Germany and France (together, or on their own) can fix, while being fair to the millions of Europeans who will bear the brunt of the financial yoke that will soon be on them one way or another.

Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, et al., are Sovereign nations, and to my knowledge there is no similar precedent or model for a Nation's Bankruptcy. Well, we do have some precedents - Argentina (repeat offender), and in one of more recent history, Russia (1997). But the Russian default then was on its 'Ruble' obligations, and the global players (Banks, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds) were very small players relative to their EU positions today, and Russian Ruble crisis was more of a 'pain-in-the-arse' than being chronic and extremely painful.

Side Note: OK, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) did turn in to STCM, and eventually in to No-Capital-To-Manage-Management. Wall Street (with the exception of a Bear Stearns), reluctantly 'Stepped-Up', at the behest of the NY FRB, and divvied up the LTCM carcass after pumping in USD 350 million each. Bear Stearns is no more, having being absorbed by JP Morgan, in September 2009, for a ridiculous sum of $2 per share that was later 'revised' to $10, after the ex-Goldman CEO led US Treasury, and, after the US FRB led by lifelong student of the 'Great Depression', Ben Bernanke, refused to allow Bear to access the FRB liquidity window. Nevermind, that shortly after Bear was no more, the FRB opened the same liquidity floodgates to the likes of Goldman and Morgan Stanley, and other broker-dealers. LTCM indeed had very large, and in hindsight, perhaps smart European convergence positions premised on the EU becoming a reality. At over 100 times leverage though, the Russian Ruble blip on the LTCM radar, was large enough to bring severe margin calls rolling in. It was the inability to meet such calls that brought LTCM down. In the end, Wall Street banks that fueled LTCM's leverage and brought LTCM down with aggressive albeit legitimate margin calls, made off extremely well on the remaining LTCM positions they had acquired.

Returning to our storyline, how does one let Spain or Greece file for bankruptcy? Can we afford these countries defaulting on their EURO obligations? I don't think so, for the socio-political consequences would be too dire to even contemplate, not to mention that Wall Street (the global metaphor) would be unable to absorb their own losses stemming from the demise of EU countries. At the same time Wall Street is NOT, this time, in a position to orchestrate a 'rescue' for its own eventual benefit. Trust me, they have been trying hard, but the bankroll of usual suspects - US Treasury, etc., is simply not available. The Obama Administration would not permit that to happen, despite what Ben may be saying in private. QE2? For the presumed purpose of 'stimulating' the US economy? Such shenanigans are laughable at best. In my minds eye, the FRB can add as many numerical suffixes to QE (Quantitative Easing) as they'd like and it would still not make a dent.

That leaves the UK and America as the only potential fiscal/financial saviors. The UK? I was born and raised in India, and the less I say about the British generosity the better it would be for me. Yeah, selfish self interest is at work. Suffice it to say however, that British government never did anything that helped anyone else but themselves, so I'd be surprised if the Brits started writing checks for all those bad consumer bank loans, and banks' losses across the EU.

Yet, the British banks like Barclays, Standard Chartered, and HSBC would love to finance yet another retail credit boom, to fuel demand, for Americans and for the rest of the world, but you see they are rather busy at this moment dealing with the pesky issues of LIBOR Gate (the LIBOR fixing scandal) and that small matter of illegal money transfers to Iranian and Iraqi ventures, in direct violations of US money laundering laws. Clearly, the British banks had the choice to pack up and leave the US, but that would be a lot more expensive in longer term lost revenues. So they accept public humiliation and being slapped with hundreds of millions of USD in fines. Being the world capital of litigation, these and all other banks involved in the LIBOR fiasco will face lawsuits from here to eternity, in the US, not to mention the global settlement of LIBOR Gate, with an army of national regulators that these banks must obtain. It is not a bad time to be defense counsel for these banks.

Lastly, the United States of America herself. Our economy has been sputtering along for over 3 years now. The financial meltdown of 2008-2009 is the gift left behind by 8 years of Bush Administration - 2 wars, one of which entirely illegal and conducted with questionable motives, and by American Innovators (aka Job Creators) in Financial Markets. Yes, America is the smartest, richest, and most powerful country in the World for a reason.

To further dim EU's hopes, America is in the middle of a nasty Presidential Election fight between Mitt Romney (Republican Nominee to be), and the Democratic Party incumbent, President Obama. Let's put it this way - even the Grand Canyon chasm pales in comparison to the the stark policy differences between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. We have 71 days to go until Americans pick their next President, and the EU should not expect ANYTHING until then from America. Beyond November 6, 2012, America will either continue to repair, heal, and recover, or she will head off into the Neanderthal socio-political, and the World of Privileged Finance. Which means, friends, that the EU is on its own.

Warehouses, apparently, are rapidly filling (if not already completely filled), across China, to the gills, as demand for all things real, and all things 'fake' evaporates, as Europe and North America shut down their substantial consumption wallets - both retail and institutional spending traps are being severely tightened, if not entirely shut. The domestic momentum of consumerism in both China and in India, and the 'good life' that middle-class folks have become accustomed to, and perhaps may even see as an entitlement, will carry the crowds for some time.

But, unless European and North American economies (consumption) turn around, or the middle class across China and India make some rapid fire lifestyle adjustments, 'Ch-India' is in for a rude awakening.

Good Luck.

PS - I do not follow South America with any serious passion, yet. Japan is simply not capable of any action in this regard. Their exclusion is not inadvertent.

Introduction to an Objectivist Epistemology
Things You Should Know About AYN RAND, and the GOP

Alisa Zinov'yevna Rosenbaum was born in pre-Bolshevik revolution Russia. Her father owned a small, but successful pharmacy in St. Petersburg. When Alisa was 12, the Soviet/Bolshevik revolution (1917) came about, and the Bolsheviks took away her father's pharmacy. The Rosenbaum family fled to Crimea, and Alisa later returned to her (renamed) city of Petrograd where she was among the first group of women allowed to pursue a university education.

Sometime during her university career, Alisa assumed the name AYN RAND as her professional name. Ayn Rand came to America in 1925 on a tourist visa - stayed briefly with family and with family friends in both New York, and Chicago before moving west to Hollywood, CA.

Ayn Rand stayed in the US well past when her tourist visa expired, and worked for a wage as an extra in a few movies. She was an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT (by modern day right wing rhetoric). Ayn married Frank O'Connor in 1929 and became a US Citizen in 1931.

Over the next 40 odd years, Ayn Rand developed a very significant following in the United States, as a 'thinker' and as a 'free market capitalist' philosopher. The unquestioned commercial success of "Fountainhead" and "Atlas Shrugged" made her a household name, and a very rich lady. Ayn made a lot of money - largely, I believe, by exploiting American fear of Collectivism/Communism, and by relentlessly pushing her agenda to enrich her coffers.

Ayn Rand retired in 1975 (age 70), and applied for SOCIAL SECURITY and MEDICARE benefits despite having a large financial estate. You see, as any other American, she was eligible, and she was ENTITLED. How very individualistic. How very Objectivistic.

Republican Party's drinking from the Ayn Rand fire-hose truly started in 1980s with the so called "Ronald Reagan Revolution", and its cousin, the "Trickle Down" economics that have since been heaved upon the American public. Why do the American masses have to wait for anything to 'trickle down'? America is based on the idea of equality and equal opportunity, so why not GO GET IT? Why wait for the 'Masters' to let crumbs trickle down? Trickle Down is pure and sheer BullShit, for the only things that have trickled down, in the last 30 years, is SHIT. Yes, Americans have creature comforts, flat screen TVs, yada yada yada, etc. But the American masses are broke and bankrupt. That is the true Trickle Down effect.

Trickle Down is the largest socio-economic fraud, in history, perpetrated on the American people by its elected conservative ruling elite. The real objective and true goal of the GOP and post-Nixon Conservatives is to forever keep the masses in modern day equivalent of 'Indentured Servitude'. That was how most passengers on the Mayflower paid for their passage to America. That, despite some lofty verbiage, was the Founders' intent. Read up, and look it up if you do not buy my line.

The likes of the Bush(es), Cheneys, VP candidate Paul Ryan, and the GOP Candidate Mitt Romney, have benefited and taken advantage of the 'American System' and the 'American Way'. And, once they 'made' it, they turned that Ayn Rand fire-hose FULL-ON.

Truth is, in my mind's eye, Ayn Rand propaganda was nothing but the psychology of being utterly and shamelessly SELFISH, to find a way to become rich in America. Once she got there, it was all about more money for her, and she was not above using ANY means to achieve her own goals and objectives, including hurting others' pursuit of similar goals.

The GOP is well on its way to its eventual self-destruction. The American Awakening is finally here.

PS: I refuse to address, or to acknowledge, Libertarians for they are nothing short of Ayn Rand to the power of N, a large positive integer. For my dollar, they can all collectively depart for planet Mars and set up new colonies.